Things Are Gonna Get Better, Right? Right?

If you’re in the financial world or in any industry that touches it (and really, who isn’t?) then you know we are at an interesting and unpredictable moment in the history of the U.S. economy, particularly when it comes to the real estate market.

There are a lot of words that get tossed around regarding the state of the economy these days: recession, depression, crash, bubble, credit crisis. There are also many predictions swirling around. Some people think we’ve hit the bottom, but most would agree that we aren’t there yet. Anyone who has even casually studied economic history will probably tell you that we are likely to see things get worse before they get better.

Even President Obama has publicly stated that we haven’t seen the worst of it yet. He recently admitted that he is "going back to the drawing board" in search of new strategies to pump life into the sluggish real estate market. He has also warned that, "no federal program is going to be able to solve the housing problem" and conceded that the "continuing decline in the housing market is something that hasn't bottomed out."

When and if it will hit a true bottom and begin to rise again is the subject of much discussion today. It of course behooves you to do your research and reach your own conclusions (or at least consult experts whom you trust and whose conclusions you feel you can rely upon.) But in the end the truth is: no one knows for sure what will happen next.

It is frequently said that you can’t time the market. Knee-jerk “buy low, sell high” behavior may work for traders on Wall Street whose volumes justify it, but for most people, it makes a lot more sense to hang on until a clear trend is obvious. It may be a good time to buy in certain circumstances (if you’ve got the cash and can afford to have it tied up), but it’s a bad time to sell and it’s a bad time to take big risks.

It’s a good time for humility. If this recession teaches us anything, it ought to be that no market has limitless growth potential. The U.S. has begun to fall behind many other world powers in terms of education, security and even quality of life. The housing bubble is yet another symptom of this. We are no longer the perfect, unquestionable super-nation that we once were.

Which is not to say that we aren’t powerful. By many measures the U.S. is still the most powerful nation in the world. The question now is how will we use our power now that it has been tempered with a little humility? Also: what can we learn from this recession that will improve our country’s economy rather than miring it in further troubles?

The subprime and Foreclosure gate crises have obvious lessons. We can’t give mortgages to people who can’t afford them without seeing negative consequences. Debt-mongering and extreme cost externalization are short-term solutions to long-term problems, and we need to do better if we want to see this country and the global economy thrive.

For the housing market, the recession has a lot of ramifications beyond the obvious foreclosure stalemate. Home prices are low, low, low. Mortgage rates are not as low as they have been, but still quite low and for many people quite attractive. If you are in a good position now, then you are probably also in a position to make things better for yourself. This is a reminder that there are always upsides to even the worst turn of events.

At Mandrien, we watch the economy, the housing market and trending analyses closely on a daily basis. We can’t offer any certainty; no one really can. But we can offer some wisdom gleaned from our team’s combined decades of financial, historical and real estate industry experience.

It’s a great time to tighten up the nuts and bolts at your company. Make sure that your processes work for you, and that you trim the fat where you can. It’s a great time to refine, to become a lean, mean title machine. Consider options you wouldn’t consider in a flush moment. Take advantage of the silver linings when they present themselves. Act cautiously, but don’t act from a place of fear or anger.

As Aldous Huxley once said, “I wanted to change the world. But I have found that the only thing one can be sure of changing is oneself.”

The question is not whether the economy will change, or whether the housing market will change (for better or for worse.) Change will come. The question is whether you will adapt to those changes and succeed, or resent them and fail. That’s the only part you can control.
 
Mandrien Consulting Group

2011-07-08 | Add a Comment
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